The Return of Old Fault Lines
The recent visit of Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to Dhaka, the first in 13 years, marks a significant
diplomatic development in South Asia. Meeting the interim Bangladeshi government led by Nobel laureate
Muhammad Yunus, Dar’s outreach signals a possible reset in Pakistan-Bangladesh ties, strained since the
aftermath of the 1971 Liberation War and the subsequent prosecution of war collaborators. This thaw, occurring
against the backdrop of India’s cooling relationship with Bangladesh, reshapes the strategic equation in the region
and challenges New Delhi’s traditional influence.
Background: A Tale of Broken Ties and Lingering Ghosts
• 1971 Liberation War Legacy: Bangladesh’s insistence on accountability for genocide, war crimes, and
reparations remains central to its foreign policy posture towards Pakistan.
• Prolonged Estrangement: Since Sheikh Hasina’s rise in 2009, ties were fraught due to her aggressive
pursuit of justice for war crimes and her secular governance stance.
• Flashpoints:
• 2015: Expulsion of a Pakistani diplomat over terror links.
• Diplomatic downgrade following protests against execution of pro-Pakistan war criminals.
• Repair Attempts: Post-Hasina ouster (August 2024), engagement resumed, aided by China’s trilateral
mechanism in Kunming, revealing Beijing’s deepening footprint in South Asian geopolitics.
The Current Thaw: Symbolism and Substance
• Diplomatic Measures Announced:
• Restoration of visa facilitation for diplomats.
• Direct flights between Dhaka and Islamabad.
• Scholarships for Bangladeshi students in Pakistan.
• Commitments to boost trade, currently under $1 billion.
• Sticking Points:
• No movement on Bangladesh’s demand for:
• A formal apology for the 1971 genocide.
• Financial compensation for wartime atrocities.
• Repatriation of “stranded Pakistanis” (Urdu-speaking Muhajirs).
• Symbolic Significance: Mr. Yunus’s call to revive SAARC underscores the yearning for regional
integration, despite its current paralysis.
Why This Matters for India
India’s strategic discomfort is palpable. For decades, Dhaka was seen as New Delhi’s closest partner in South
Asia, especially after the 1971 war cemented ties. However:
• Missed Opportunities:
• PM Modi’s April meeting with Yunus and EAM Jaishankar’s sideline talks lacked follow-up through highprofile visits or meaningful gestures.
• No formal invitation extended to Yunus—a gap exploited by Islamabad.
• Perception of Neglect: Domestic turmoil in Bangladesh (anti-Hasina protests, military role in transition)
coincided with India’s cautious engagement, creating a diplomatic vacuum.
• Pakistan’s Leverage:
• Historical emotional appeals to shared Islamic identity.
• Use of Jamaat-e-Islami networks, suspected of backing anti-Hasina protests.
• Covert intelligence linkages remain an Indian security concern.
China: The Silent Power Broker
• Beijing’s Role:
• Facilitated Dhaka-Islamabad dialogue through the Kunming trilateral.
• Seeks to position itself as the “neutral convenor” in South Asia.
• Strategic Objective:
• Undermine India’s influence.
• Embed China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into Dhaka-Islamabad ties.
• Weaken SAARC dependency on India by promoting alternative regional platforms.
Implications for Regional Geopolitics
1. SAARC Revival or Illusion?
• Yunus’s advocacy for SAARC revival faces hurdles due to India-Pakistan hostility.
2. Shift in Bangladesh’s Strategic Autonomy:
• Dhaka leveraging ties with Pakistan to balance India and China.
3. India’s Neighborhood Policy Under Test:
• “Neighborhood First” and “Act East” strategies risk dilution if India appears reactive rather than
proactive.
Historical Parallels
• 1971 vs. 2025:
• In 1971, India shaped Bangladesh’s destiny.
• In 2025, China and Pakistan are scripting new chapters, with India watching from the sidelines.
• Cold War Echo:
• Just as external powers once competed in South Asia, a new strategic triangle (India-China-Pakistan) is
emerging.
India’s Diplomatic Imperatives
1. Strategic Re-engagement with Bangladesh
• High-level visits and visible outreach to Yunus government and opposition parties ahead of February
elections.
• Offer tangible economic and connectivity incentives (e.g., BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement revival).
2. Countering the China-Pakistan Axis
• Deepen economic interdependence: Increase investments in SEZs in Bangladesh.
• Promote sub-regional groupings like BIMSTEC and BBIN as viable alternatives to SAARC.
3. Address Security Concerns
• Intensify intelligence coordination to monitor extremist networks like Jamaat-e-Islami with cross-border
linkages.
4. Leverage Soft Power Diplomacy
• Expand people-to-people exchanges, cultural ties, and educational scholarships to reinforce historical
bonds.
Value Addition for Deeper Insight
• Relevant Theories:
• Balance of Power Theory – Pakistan leveraging Dhaka to offset India.
• Bandwagoning vs. Hedging – Bangladesh’s approach to navigating between major powers.
• Global Example:
• Similar diplomatic maneuvering seen in ASEAN states balancing China and the U.S. – South Asia is
replicating this trend.
• Data Point:
• India-Bangladesh bilateral trade: $18 billion (2023) vs. Bangladesh-Pakistan: < $1 billion → India retains
economic leverage if it acts decisively.
The Dhaka-Islamabad thaw is not just a bilateral story—it is a test of India’s regional leadership. As Pakistan
exploits India’s diplomatic pause and China plays the role of mediator, New Delhi must shed its reactive posture
and proactively shape outcomes in its neighbourhood. In a region where history looms large and geopolitics shifts
fast, complacency is a luxury India cannot afford.
